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A mere eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. As Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, Emery discarded his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow just three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?

It remains a rather hard proposition to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the wins have piled up.

According to the data, in only two games have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their talisman to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against United.

Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition had more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.

A reversion to average may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, will not continue to blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent might become the player he was during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital player for the national team.

The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.